Solar payback in all 50 states — now that the federal credit is gone.
The 30% federal solar tax credit (Section 25D) expired on December 31, 2025. Almost every "solar payback" number online was written when the credit still existed. So we recomputed it — simple payback for all 50 states, without the credit, using public data and math you can reproduce. Here's what changed, and where solar still pays off fastest.
The surprise: sunshine barely matters
You'd expect sunny states to win. They don't. After the credit, the fastest payback in America is in cloudy New England — because two things dwarf sunshine: your electricity rate (the value of every kWh you offset) and your state's net-metering policy (whether exports are credited at full retail or a fraction of it). Sun-drenched Arizona takes about 15.0 years; foggy Massachusetts, about 6.4 — the same panels, less than half the wait.
Solar payback by state, 2026 (sortable)
Simple payback in years, sorted fastest first. Now = without the federal credit (the 2026 reality). With credit = what the same system would have paid back before 2026. Click any column to sort.
| # | State | Now (yrs) | With credit | Δ yrs | Rate ¢/kWh | Net metering |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawaii | 5.6 | 3.9 | +1.7 | 46.62 | Net billing |
| 2 | Connecticut | 6.0 | 4.2 | +1.8 | 32.24 | Full retail |
| 3 | Massachusetts | 6.4 | 4.5 | +1.9 | 29.45 | Full retail |
| 4 | Rhode Island | 6.6 | 4.6 | +2.0 | 28.3 | Full retail |
| 5 | New York | 6.7 | 4.7 | +2.0 | 29.45 | Full retail |
| 6 | Maine | 6.8 | 4.8 | +2.0 | 28.42 | Full retail |
| 7 | California | 7.1 | 5.0 | +2.1 | 35.25 | Net billing |
| 8 | New Hampshire | 7.1 | 5.0 | +2.1 | 27.24 | Full retail |
| 9 | New Jersey | 8.1 | 5.6 | +2.4 | 23.53 | Full retail |
| 10 | Maryland | 8.2 | 5.7 | +2.5 | 22.07 | Full retail |
| 11 | Vermont | 8.3 | 5.8 | +2.5 | 24.56 | Full retail |
| 12 | Pennsylvania | 8.6 | 6.0 | +2.6 | 21.47 | Full retail |
| 13 | New Mexico | 9.1 | 6.4 | +2.7 | 15.15 | Full retail |
| 14 | Colorado | 9.4 | 6.6 | +2.8 | 16.54 | Full retail |
| 15 | Illinois | 9.6 | 6.7 | +2.9 | 20.47 | Full retail |
| 16 | South Carolina | 9.7 | 6.8 | +2.9 | 17.06 | Full retail |
| 17 | Delaware | 9.8 | 6.9 | +2.9 | 18.79 | Full retail |
| 18 | Ohio | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 | 19.49 | Full retail |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 10.0 | 7.0 | +3.0 | 19.21 | Full retail |
| 20 | Virginia | 10.1 | 7.1 | +3.0 | 17.38 | Full retail |
| 21 | Kansas | 10.4 | 7.3 | +3.1 | 15.78 | Full retail |
| 22 | North Carolina | 10.4 | 7.2 | +3.1 | 16.25 | Full retail |
| 23 | Florida | 10.5 | 7.3 | +3.1 | 15.38 | Full retail |
| 24 | Georgia | 11.1 | 7.8 | +3.3 | 15.37 | Full retail |
| 25 | Wyoming | 11.2 | 7.9 | +3.4 | 14.68 | Full retail |
| 26 | Minnesota | 11.7 | 8.2 | +3.5 | 16.39 | Full retail |
| 27 | West Virginia | 12.0 | 8.4 | +3.6 | 16.06 | Full retail |
| 28 | Oklahoma | 12.1 | 8.4 | +3.6 | 13.31 | Full retail |
| 29 | Kentucky | 12.3 | 8.6 | +3.7 | 15.02 | Full retail |
| 30 | Missouri | 12.5 | 8.8 | +3.8 | 14.01 | Full retail |
| 31 | Iowa | 13.4 | 9.4 | +4.0 | 13.86 | Full retail |
| 32 | Montana | 13.4 | 9.3 | +4.0 | 13.9 | Full retail |
| 33 | Nebraska | 13.4 | 9.4 | +4.0 | 13.28 | Full retail |
| 34 | Oregon | 13.8 | 9.7 | +4.1 | 15.78 | Full retail |
| 35 | Arizona | 15.0 | 10.5 | +4.5 | 15.48 | Net billing |
| 36 | Washington | 15.6 | 10.9 | +4.7 | 14.36 | Full retail |
| 37 | Michigan | 15.9 | 11.2 | +4.8 | 21.39 | Net billing |
| 38 | North Dakota | 16.1 | 11.3 | +4.8 | 12.35 | Full retail |
| 39 | Nevada | 16.6 | 11.6 | +5.0 | 14.29 | Net billing |
| 40 | Indiana | 18.3 | 12.8 | +5.5 | 17.9 | Net billing |
| 41 | Louisiana | 19.8 | 13.9 | +5.9 | 14.44 | Net billing |
| 42 | Arkansas | 20.8 | 14.5 | +6.2 | 14.16 | Net billing |
| 43 | Alabama | 21.2 | 14.8 | +6.4 | 17.41 | None |
| 44 | Utah | 21.3 | 14.9 | +6.4 | 13.29 | Net billing |
| 45 | Texas | 21.7 | 15.2 | +6.5 | 16.99 | None |
| 46 | Mississippi | 21.8 | 15.3 | +6.5 | 16.76 | None |
| 47 | Alaska | 22.2 | 15.5 | +6.6 | 27.35 | None |
| 48 | Tennessee | 26.7 | 18.7 | +8.0 | 14.94 | None |
| 49 | South Dakota | 27.2 | 19.1 | +8.2 | 14.52 | None |
| 50 | Idaho | 29.0 | 20.3 | +8.7 | 12.7 | None |
Payback is independent of system size (cost and output both scale with kW, so it cancels). Full dataset below.
Where solar pays off fastest — and slowest
Fastest payback (2026)
- Hawaii (5.6), Connecticut (6.0), Massachusetts (6.4), Rhode Island (6.6), New York (6.7)
- The pattern: high electricity rates + full-retail net metering.
Slowest payback (2026)
- Idaho (29.0), South Dakota (27.2), Tennessee (26.7), Alaska (22.2), Mississippi (21.8)
- The pattern: cheap power + no statewide net-metering mandate.
Ohio, an 11 kW system, without the credit
Inputs: Ohio retail rate $0.1949/kWh; NREL yield ≈ 1,326 kWh per kW per year (4.54 peak sun hours × 365 × 0.80 derate); full-retail net metering; installed cost $2.58/W (EnergySage 2026).
| System cost — 11 kW × $2,580/kW | $28,380 |
| Annual production — 11 kW × 1,326 kWh | 14,586 kWh |
| Annual savings — 14,586 kWh × $0.1949 | $2,843 / yr |
Different state or rate? Put your own numbers into the solar ROI calculator.
So is solar still worth it in 2026?
Still worth it if…
- Your electricity rate is high (roughly above $0.20/kWh) — most of the Northeast, California, Hawaii.
- Your state keeps full-retail net metering, so exports are worth as much as what you'd pay.
- You have a strong state or utility incentive that replaces part of the lost federal credit.
Think twice if…
- Your power is cheap (below ~$0.14/kWh) and there's no state net-metering mandate.
- Your utility only pays avoided-cost / net-billing rates for exports (payback stretches past 15 years).
- You'd finance at a rate that eats the savings — run the loan cost, not just the cash payback.
How we calculated this
Payback = installed cost ÷ annual savings, per kW (system size cancels). Annual savings = annual production × your retail rate × a value factor for how exports are credited (full retail = 1.00; net-billing / avoided-cost ≈ 0.58; no statewide mandate ≈ 0.46). Inputs are public: EIA residential rates (Apr 2026), NREL PVWatts peak sun hours, statewide net-metering regime, and EnergySage installed cost ($2.58/W, 2026). This is simple payback — no rate inflation (which would shorten it) and no discounting (which would lengthen it). Full sources and assumptions on the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
Did the solar tax credit really end?
Yes. The 30% residential credit (Section 25D) ended for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025, under the 2025 budget law. Systems energized in 2026 and later don't qualify for the federal credit, though many state and utility incentives remain.
How much longer is payback without the credit?
About 43% longer, everywhere — it's a fixed 1 ÷ (1 − 0.30) ≈ 1.43× multiplier. In years, that's roughly 3–6 extra years depending on your state, and a ~4-year jump for the average state in our data.
Which state has the fastest solar payback in 2026?
High-rate states with full-retail net metering lead — Hawaii, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New York all pay back in under 7 years in our model, despite modest sunshine.
Sources: EIA residential electricity prices (via ChooseEnergy, Apr 2026); NREL PVWatts v8 peak sun hours; statewide net-metering status (Apr 2026); EnergySage installed-cost data 2026. Method and assumptions: /methodology. Modeling, not field measurement. Last reviewed July 5, 2026.